mike carey

A good analysis of the current situation in Australia in Josh Szeps' monologue at the start of this podcast. You may remember him as one of the presenters on HuffPost TV a couple of years ago. He's since come home and works on ABC radio in Sydney. When I was writing my earlier post about when we might open our borders, I was musing about whether the likely divergence between NSW and the other states was a good or bad thing but decided to describe it without commenting on it. He makes a reasonable case that we haven't had a first wave if a 'wave' is what the US and European countries have had, so we are in a fundamentally different position of having zero background immunity from prior infection. Now that vaccinations are here we have to have an objective to underpin whatever containment measures we take, and elimination is not a realistic one, at some stage we have to have a strategy for how we emerge into a 'vaccinated' world. His commentary is in the first 25 or so minutes. https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/are-psychedelics-the-answer-with-james-mathison/id1002920114?i=1000532295035

From what I've read (and heard), a bit of both. The immediate reason for boosters has been a decline in efficacy of the vaccines in vaccinated people over time, which has been noted in Israel. Longer term, it's not clear how much modification is needed as some of the vaccines rely on characteristics of the virus that haven't changed. Australia has contracts with one of the mRNA vaccine companies for a modified version for next year, so there must be some scope for tweaks to make them more effective.

It was an existing thread.

It's not clear that we are, although it is being mitigated. Within a couple of days the NZ Health Minister conceded that the elimination strategy may have become unrealistic with Delta, and the public narrative here is much the same although not explicit. There are cases in NSW, Victoria and the ACT, and yesterday one in Queensland. The other jurisdictions are not affected and have few internal restrictions. Victoria and the ACT seem to have it under control but with some continuing spread, NSW less so and with still worrying levels of cases from unknown sources. People (and governments) are sort of holding their breath as they watch what happens as our vaccination rates start to catch up with the rest of the developed world.

Long winded answer (well, sort of) offered

I'll answer this here rather than continue in the Palm Springs Weekend thread. My immediate answer is, 'How long is a piece of string?', but that's not all that useful. The answer offered in the title of this thread is probably pessimistic now (and I thought when the thread started that it was the worst case scenario), but while pessimistic late 2022 is not out of the question. This month the government commissioned modelling on how different levels of vaccination would affect the opening of the economy and that hit on 70% and 80% of the >16yo population as gates for implementing the reduction of restrictions (not specifically the external border, but that is implied). (I heard a scientist on TV tonight say that all modelling is wrong, but some is useful.) Since then the Federal and NSW have been talking of those levels of vaccination being sufficient in themselves for phased easing of restrictions irrespective of what levels of disease there are at the time. All other state and territory governments have been saying, with increasing stridency in QLD, WA and the ACT, that those percentages of fully vaccinated people will only be one consideration in what restrictions are retained. Most of the states and territories have not said they would commit to ceasing interstate border closures, and some have said that if NSW eases its restrictions 'prematurely' they will harden their border closures to NSW. The federal government wants to open the external border, but if many of the states persist with internal border closures we could have an open Australian external border but for it to be in effect only an open NSW external border. Will that actually happen? I really don't know, and I suspect if state governments hold to the view that it's not safe to allow travel from NSW without quarantine that might delay opening the external border but it won't stop it. As to what all that means, I don't think there will be a meaningful reopening of Australia's borders before Q2 2022. I may be able to attend the Palm Springs weekend but I'll have to make last minute bookings to do so. Conversations here about lockdowns have been binary seemingly between locked down and no restrictions, but are becoming more nuanced. Even if states or cities are not locked down, there will still be mandatory isolation for positive cases and quarantine for close contacts (like being 'pinged' in the UK?). Once somewhere hits 70% then 80% (NSW and the ACT on current rates of vaccination) what that means to the levels of restrictions will become clearer as will the border debate. Depending on how that pans out over the next month or two, we should see some movement on borders by the end of the year, perhaps easing restrictions on vaccinated Australians returning to the country and then on that group being permitted to leave, with one or both those classes of travel in early 2022. It will be a pyrrhic victory if only Australians who want to go to NSW can come home. After all of that, by mid-2022 we will probably have international travel that looks broadly like the rest of the world with vaccination required and quarantine for some travellers. Recent travel to some countries may prevent travel here. What I have said above is more about the twists and diversions that could happen on the way there. One of the reasons that Australians were happy to comply, even if reluctantly in some cases, was that we could see how much worse it could be. Acceptance will drop as the rest of the world starts to appear to have returned to an apparently normal life. Our state and territory leaders are politicians, they will be able to read the room.

Yes, I am. The best bet is that we will be closed until mid-2022, but we may be open earlier. Who knows? I don't know if Amex will give you better options, it may have just been a one-off occurrence when I was looking. No harm in looking at what they offer.

This may be a really left field suggestion. I had been doing speculative searches on flight aggregator sites for flights to PSP for the April weekend (in the forlorn hope that borders will be open and I can go there), and on the Qantas site. Nothing worth considering. Amex travel on line came up with much better options, although you need to have access to it. I haven't booked anything as I don't know if the border will be open.

The Α has already passed, the Ω is yet to come. I hope the Δ is done by then.

People who have been in or transited the US (and several other countries) in the previous 21 days cannot enter Hong Kong.

I just can't wait... ... to sit in Canberra and read all the accounts of the fun you guys are having. Then again, maybe I will be able to make it, but I'm not booking just yet.

I think there is something in that (or it's in there somewhere when one puts on a little weight - extra mass, I should have said), but if it is so, I'm not sure what the conversions factor is. And what are these 'pounds' of which you speak. I should conduct an experiment to see what the rate is between inches and kilograms. It may take rather more time than I have to devote to in.

Leaving aside the minor point that 'democracy' and 'South Vietnam' were in no way related.

One more reason to visit the UK, when I can!

Well, the next variant probably won't be Delta, this guy seems to be very hard to catch.

This article indicates she may have been one of the people who were part of the inspiration for this particular appellation. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-53588201

Happy birthday @Daverwr and @purplekow!

@IronMausis a nice guy!

An oldie but a goodie!

Given recent casting decisions in Dr Who, it can't be too long.

Yep, I received the same e-mail. I'll be double-vaxxed by the time I can travel to the US and from what Qantas is saying I'll have to have the IATA vaccine app to travel. I will also have my Medicare app certification but I'm not sure a foreign certification would be enough. Perhaps the paper Australian Government vaccination card will carry more weight!

Yes, San Jose is where I met him at his home. He certainly seems to be quite the energiser bunny with his various pursuits of late.

The Sunday morning sports panel discussion program on the ABC here often features a snippet of something inspiring or quirky at the end of the show. Last Sunday this was it with images of players walking through a cornfield. MLB succeeded in getting international attention, at least in this one little corner of the world.

I reported a post a few minutes ago that appeared to miss the point of this site, and it's now gone. I suspect that is what caught your attention.

Bon anniversaire to you both.