There are a number of studies coming out, about the impact that social distancing has on the COVID virus spread:
This one from the USA's CDC.
https://www.aha.org/news/headline/2020-06-04-study-estimates-impact-various-social-distancing-scenarios
This one published in Nature, emergency measures saved 500 million infections:
https://www.aha.org/news/headline/2020-06-04-study-estimates-impact-various-social-distancing-scenarios