Texas governor institutes travel restrictions for NYC/NOLA area travelers

[Beancounter]

https://www.kxan.com/news/coronavirus/gov-abbott-provides-update-on-covid-19-response-in-texas/

 

It just became a little bit more difficult for the flying public to enter the Lone Star State.

It was bound to happen. Sounds like Washington and California could be next.

[+ tassojunior]

https://www.kxan.com/news/coronavirus/gov-abbott-provides-update-on-covid-19-response-in-texas/

 

It just became a little bit more difficult for the flying public to enter the Lone Star State.

It was bound to happen. Sounds like Washington and California could be next.

 

It's a huge issue for Florida, upstate NY, Long Island, and many places fairly wealthy NYers frequent, including DC . NY will be the Italy of the US as connected as it is to so much of the US.

 

Where's Gov.Christie when we need some bridges and tunnels closed?

[+ stevenkesslar]

Trump outlines plan to classify counties by risk level for coronavirus

 

President Trump on Thursday outlined plans for his administration to classify each county across the United States based on its risk for an outbreak of coronavirus and use that information to create targeted guidelines.

 

In a letter to the nation's governors, Trump spoke optimistically about expanded testing capabilities that would allow officials to identify which areas of the country are grappling with outbreaks and where the virus is spreading.

 

Based on that surveillance testing data, federal agencies would determine if a specific county is high-risk, medium-risk or low-risk for the virus. The administration is simultaneously working on new guidelines for social distancing that would apply to an area depending on its classification, Trump wrote.

 

 

Just to be clear I'm posting this here as an apolitical "facts, facts, and only the facts" thing.

 

I'm guessing this is what the scientists and doctors, like Dr. Fauci and Dr. Blix, are recommending. Whoever is recommending it, it makes a hell of a lot of sense.

 

This is essentially what China did, using a very different toolbox. One province, the epicenter, was a complete mess. It required extremely aggressive action. Everyplace else was on lock down, but to lesser degrees.

 

India is probably in the lead right now in having done a bunch of random testing, where they found most areas they tested appeared to be "clean".

 

The message has also gotten through that if there is a way to prevent every city and really every small town from not becoming like New York City, it is through sensible testing protocols - which we will have to figure out as we go.

 

It should be obvious now that this is not like cancer, where you get a "clean" bill of health, and then you can just stop worrying. The reality is that every state in the US, and a whole bunch of counties in that state, now have somebody infected because we didn't worry.

 

The flip side is that we can prevent "clean" areas from getting infected, and gradually test and trace and treat so that the areas that are risky become smaller and the areas that appear to be "clean" become bigger.

 

This whole strategy calls for restrictions on movement that no one is talking about yet. It makes no sense to send 1000 spring breakers to Florida, make sure every one is infected, and then send them home to 1000 "clean" counties across America. That is what you would do to help the virus spread, not to defeat it. That's a hypothetical. But some version of that did just happen in Florida, with Spring Break. And in New Orleans, with Mardi Gras.

 

My point is that if we want to contain this thing, so we can get back to a fairly normal economy, we are going to have to accept some restrictions on movement. That is the lesson of Asian countries like Japan and South Korea ad Taiwan and Singapore, where it is working.

 

In practice, that could mean that in Nebraska restaurants can pretty much be open for business. But there should be clear guidelines to prevent the spread of virus - like maybe they operate at half capacity. That is obviously better than not being open at all. And if somebody does test positive, they may need to put people in lock down mode. People like Dr. Fauci and Dr. Brix will have some very good ideas. Brix is known to be a Republican, I think, which in this situation is good. It underscores the idea that whatever they recommend, it is not a partisan idea.

 

Just from the standpoint of science, that is the lesson of past epidemics. It is also what is allowing lots of countries in Asia to keep their economies going at maybe 75 % of normal, as opposed to 0 % of normal. They are just accepting some more restrictive but temporary rules, and a heavy dose of social distancing strategies, to keep ahead of the virus until it goes away or, more likely, is vaccinated to death.

[+ stevenkesslar]

https://www.kxan.com/news/coronavirus/gov-abbott-provides-update-on-covid-19-response-in-texas/

 

It just became a little bit more difficult for the flying public to enter the Lone Star State.

It was bound to happen. Sounds like Washington and California could be next.

 

 

 

I posted that image because I think it is a great metaphor for reactive thinking.

 

One minute before that image, both drivers were just fine. There was no problem. What could possibly go wrong?

 

One minute after that image, both drivers are dead. Things change very quickly in a car crash.

 

Everybody gets that basic concept.

 

One thing we are learning is that we are not trained to think like epidemiologists. Probably the biggest advantage the Asian countries had is they have gone through this recently with SARS and other epidemics in a way the US has not. So the public in Asia is just more informed, I think. We need to get up to speed on this, if we want to manage this successfully like they appear to be doing.

 

Gov. Abbott is not wrong to restrict travel from hot spots. The problem is that he is not going far enough.

 

Right now there are 100 diagnosed cases where I live, Riverside County. So an epidemiologist will tell you that 100 people diagnosed today - probably because they are so sick that they sought medical care - means they got infected maybe a week ago. And a week ago there were probably 500 infections at least, 20 % of which got sick enough to now be showing up in hospitals. Before we went into lock down, the number of people infected was doubling every four days or so. So that would mean the 500 + people infected a week ago are now 2000 + infected people.

 

So let's just assume I am one of them. And I get on a plane and go to Texas. And 5 days from now I start coughing. If I happen to be one of the unlucky 20 % that have a severe case, or the 5 % that may need to be in an ICU, I sure as shit don't want to be in Texas. More important, from an epidemiological perspective, is that I may have infected other people on the plane or in Texas, without even knowing I was sick.

 

That is clearly how this virus managed to spread everywhere in a matter of about two months.

 

My point is that if we want to beat this virus, we are going to have to beat it on its terms. It is always going to be one or two week's ahead of us. We can't negotiate with the virus about that. If we want to beat it, we have to beat it at its own game.

 

I'm glad this bipartisan bill essentially bails out the airline industry. We do need a functioning airline system. But right now, it will be the hardest hit. And the last piece of the puzzle we put back together.

 

What I like about this county-centric plan is that we should be able to open up a lot of businesses in a lot of places, locally. First, we have to have testing tools to know what is really going on. And this testing thing is really not rocket science. Asian countries have proven that.

 

The last thing we need is for one person, like me, to innocently fuck everything up for some county in Texas by getting on a plane and going to some bbq joint with my aunt in Texas and infecting three or five other people before I know I am sick. Because soon enough that will mean 300 or 500 people are sick, and maybe 60 or 100 are headed to the hospital, a handful of them to die.

 

That is what we don't want! But that is exactly how this virus works.

 

South Korea had only about two cases a day until the beginning of March, when they found some secretive church sect had infected people showing up in hospitals. They were praying close together, sharing glasses or plates, whatever. So of 10,000 people tested, 4,000 were sick. Some of them are dead now, and some are in ICUs or hospitals. Fortunately, South Korea has it under control. They went from almost 1000 news cases a day to now somewhere in the double digits in terms of new daily cases. But that one church fucked things up for a lot of South Koreans.

 

Again, people like Dr. Fauci and Dr. Blix know this. They beat AIDS. We should listen to them.

 

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told reporters on Tuesday that officials still needed more data to determine whether areas without current outbreaks might face them soon.

 

"I think people might get the misinterpretation you're just going to lift everything up and ... that's not going to happen," Fauci said. "It's going to be looking at the data."

Edited March 26, 2020 by stevenkesslar

[+ E.T.Bass]

 

I posted that image because I think it is a great metaphor for reactive thinking.

 

One minute before that image, both drivers were just fine. There was no problem. What could possibly go wrong?

 

One minute after that image, both drivers are dead. Things change very quickly in a car crash.

 

Everybody gets that basic concept.

 

One thing we are learning is that we are not trained to think like epidemiologists. Probably the biggest advantage the Asian countries had is they have gone through this recently with SARS and other epidemics in a way the US has not. So the public in Asia is just more informed, I think. We need to get up to speed on this, if we want to manage this successfully like they appear to be doing.

 

Gov. Abbott is not wrong to restrict travel from hot spots. The problem is that he is not going far enough.

 

Right now there are 100 diagnosed cases where I live, Riverside County. So an epidemiologist will tell you that 100 people diagnosed today - probably because they are so sick that they sought medical care - means they got infected maybe a week ago. And a week ago there were probably 500 infections at least, 20 % of which got sick enough to now be showing up in hospitals. Before we went into lock down, the number of people infected was doubling every four days or so. So that would mean the 500 + people infected a week ago are now 2000 + infected people.

 

So let's just assume I am one of them. And I get on a plane and go to Texas. And 5 days from now I start coughing. If I happen to be one of the unlucky 20 % that have a severe case, or the 5 % that may need to be in an ICU, I sure as shit don't want to be in Texas. More important, from an epidemiological perspective, is that I may have infected other people on the plane or in Texas, without even knowing I was sick.

 

That is clearly how this virus managed to spread everywhere in a matter of about two months.

 

My point is that if we want to beat this virus, we are going to have to beat it on its terms. It is always going to be one or two week's ahead of us. We can't negotiate with the virus about that. If we want to beat it, we have to beat it at its own game.

 

I'm glad this bipartisan bill essentially bails out the airline industry. We do need a functioning airline system. But right now, it will be the hardest hit. And the last piece of the puzzle we put back together.

 

What I like about this county-centric plan is that we should be able to open up a lot of businesses in a lot of places, locally. First, we have to have testing tools to know what is really going on. And this testing thing is really not rocket science. Asian countries have proven that.

 

The last thing we need is for one person, like me, to innocently fuck everything up for some county in Texas by getting on a plane and going to some bbq joint with my aunt in Texas and infecting three or five other people before I know I am sick. Because soon enough that will mean 300 or 500 people are sick, and maybe 60 or 100 are headed to the hospital, a handful of them to die.

 

That is what we don't want! But that is exactly how this virus works.

 

South Korea had only about two cases a day until the beginning of March, when they found some secretive church sect had infected people showing up in hospitals. They were praying close together, sharing glasses or plates, whatever. So of 10,000 people tested, 4,000 were sick. Some of them are dead now, and some are in ICUs or hospitals. Fortunately, South Korea has it under control. They went from almost 1000 news cases a day to now somewhere in the double digits in terms of new daily cases. But that one church fucked things up for a lot of South Koreans.

 

Again, people like Dr. Fauci and Dr. Blix know this. They beat AIDS. We should listen to them.

 

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told reporters on Tuesday that officials still needed more data to determine whether areas without current outbreaks might face them soon.

 

"I think people might get the misinterpretation you're just going to lift everything up and ... that's not going to happen," Fauci said. "It's going to be looking at the data."

One member of that South Korean church, referred to as patient 31, failed to follow any of the protocol to prevent the spread, and so became a "super spreader". So, yes it does make sense to make sweeping restrictions that might affect your choice to visit a BBQ joint in Tejas with your aunt.

 

Most people want to help stop the spread, but a few won't.