Is Florida real estate bubble about to burst?

[+ Vegas_Millennial]

13 hours ago, Tane said:

The salaries there need to keep growing to match those prices... Those who bought before 2019 and sold in 2022-2023 made a lot of money. Btw - you can browse property taxes at the Broward County Tax Assessor website with only an address - you’ll also get complete sales history with prices & ownership, same with any other county in Florida.  They also have a tax calculator to show what your estimated property taxes will be on any new purchase w any deductions that may apply

Gotta love government transparency.  In Nevada, we have a similar feature.  There are a handful of good-government transparency laws across the nation called "Sunshine Laws" which require state and local governments to keep transparent records available to the public.  They are called "Sunshine Laws" because they shine light on government records, but also because they are modeled after those laws in the Sunshine State... Florida.

[+ augustus]

Talk about real estate bubbles bursting, look at this article about San Francisco.   Condo prices are crashing there.  

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/california-condo-prices-crash-by-up-to-40-in-some-areas/ar-BB1nFA8v?ocid=msedgntp&pc=HCTS&cvid=cbb2ef4e5d5b45eeaca60af4b6e1cd7b&ei=25

 

A downtown San Francisco recent condo sale......

Purchased in 2015 for 2.001MM

Just sold for $1.168MM

$833k loss

 

[SouthOfTheBorder]

while anecdotes are interesting & are part of the story - it’s generally more useful to look at market trends.  Since, beginning of 2024 - home prices are up in San Francisco 3.7% YTD according to the MSN story provided.  No telling if this will be sustained or not.

the big difference between San Francisco & Florida - SF has jobs & income to support high home prices.  Florida does not - the Florida economy is driven by low-wage jobs in service & tourism.  Florida’s real estate sector is based upon speculation.  San Francisco economy is driven by global technology & finance - more billionaires per capita in SF than any where else.  And it’s not just billionaires - the very high incomes of tech workers in SF supports high home prices in a very small city with a finite supply of housing.  
The problems in SF will eventually get fixed.  And Florida will remain Florida, dependent on nonstop & unregulated population growth to sustain the real estate speculation, which has already peaked. 

both areas have a long history of boom & bust real estate cycles.  no surprise SF is seeing a bust now. 
 

Edited June 6 by SouthOfTheBorder

[Luv2play]

On 5/22/2024 at 2:00 PM, EZEtoGRU said:

Yea…Florida just isn’t the place to be anymore. Summers have gotten way too hot and winters are seeing increasing amounts of rain and cloudy weather. South Florida used to be reliably lovely from November through April. No longer the case. 
 

I still go to South Florida for Johnson’s…but I really don’t like spending my gay dollars in a state that doesn’t respect or value me. I wish there were more options elsewhere. 
 

weather and politics aside, I don’t know how an average Joe can even afford to live in South Florida now.    Who’s going to wait on and provide services to all the people with multi million dollar homes if an average person can no longer afford to live there?   Inflation has been running higher in Florida than any other state for a while now. 
 

I’m glad I lived in Florida when I did (the 1990’s) and got to experience the lovely winters. I would hate to be stuck there now given the plethora of horrors going on now. 

I lived in Miami for the winters of 1998 to 2003, after I had retired. The winter weather was gorgeous. So glad I got to experience that. 

[marylander1940]

Repeat of 2008 maybe, but worse than 2008? I doubt it! 

 

[+ Vegas_Millennial]

3 hours ago, marylander1940 said:

Repeat of 2008 maybe, but worse than 2008? I doubt it! 

 

Agree.  The 2008 collapse was caused by too many loans given out with relaxed lending standards with minimum down payments and tricky interest-only or balloon payments, and with relaxed income verification requirements.

For now, Florida remains the state with the highest percentage of all cash buyers.  Prices may drop, but people won't be walking away from their properties and banks won't be foreclosing in mass.

[BSR]

1 hour ago, Vegas_Millennial said:

Agree.  The 2008 collapse was caused by too many loans given out with relaxed lending standards with minimum down payments and tricky interest-only or balloon payments, and with relaxed income verification requirements.

For now, Florida remains the state with the highest percentage of all cash buyers.  Prices may drop, but people won't be walking away from their properties and banks won't be foreclosing in mass.

I agree that we're due for a recession, probably a bad one, but as bad or worse than the GFC?  Some troubling signs (like the collapse in commercial real estate), but far from 2008's harmonic convergence of stupidity and recklessness.

Florida's real estate market is fascinating.  On the Gulf Coast, inventory is exploding.  Owners crushed by homeowners and maintenance (hurricane-proofing) costs are selling and fleeing.  Prices haven't collapsed, yet, but 10-fold increases in the number of properties listed can mean only one thing for prices.

On the other coast, wealthy buyers are flooding South Florida.  Some sold their homes in NY & CA and have a moving truck of cash to spend.  Many work in tech or finance.  Miami continues to attract a sh*t-ton of rich foreigners.

So many luxury condos are being built in South Florida that a glut would seem inevitable.  But apparently they're selling like hotcakes, and buyers have real money this time, not the no-money-no-problem buyers from pre-2008.

[SouthOfTheBorder]

Here’s Sarasota today - another Once in a Thousand Year flood.  

The last Once in a Thousand Year flood was Ft Lauderdale April 2023

 

[mike carey]

A 1000 year flood in one place in 2023 followed by a 1000 year flood a year later in another place doesn't prove anything. It's only an indication of something if they're in the same place.

[+ BenjaminNicholas]

9 minutes ago, mike carey said:

A 1000 year flood in one place in 2023 followed by a 1000 year flood a year later in another place doesn't prove anything. It's only an indication of something if they're in the same place.

Exactly.

As I've said before, correlation is not causation.

[+ augustus]

The single-family home market is definitely cracking in Florida and SF and other places too.  It's all over the news! The commercial real estate market is imploding.  The tallest office building in Fort Worth just sold for $12 million when it sold for $137 million just 3 years ago.  Many banks, particularly regional banks, are going to fail because of this.  There are dozens of banks now on the FDIC problem list.

There are now some "insurance companies" selling annuities with an interest rate of over 6%.  Do NOT buy them.  Barron's had a recent article that investigated this and found these companies have invested in "businesses" that have no record of any business activity.  Gainbridge is advertising annuities paying 6.15%.  Stay away!

Then the private credit market is also cracking, and people are losing their life savings.  @RadioRob asked about these private credit investments a couple of years ago here and I strongly advised against them.

[SouthOfTheBorder]

11 hours ago, mike carey said:

It's only an indication of something if they're in the same place.

it’s Miami & Ft Lauderdale too: 10” of rain, waist deep water, interstates closed, do not travel bulletins, flights cancelled, Governor has declared disaster area - so, that’s two highly unusual rain events in Ft Lauderdale less than 15 months apart.

more rain forecast for today 

this is mid June & typically the rainy season doesn’t start until later 

it’s all over the news - see for yourself 

Heavy Rain Causes Devastating Flooding in Florida

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/13/us/florida-photos-floods-storms-miami.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare&sgrp=c-cb

 

Edited June 13 by SouthOfTheBorder

[+ FrankR]

On 6/13/2024 at 7:30 AM, SouthOfTheBorder said:

it’s Miami & Ft Lauderdale too: 10” of rain, waist deep water, interstates closed, do not travel bulletins, flights cancelled, Governor has declared disaster area - so, that’s two highly unusual rain events in Ft Lauderdale less than 15 months apart.

more rain forecast for today 

this is mid June & typically the rainy season doesn’t start until later 

it’s all over the news - see for yourself 

Heavy Rain Causes Devastating Flooding in Florida

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/13/us/florida-photos-floods-storms-miami.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare&sgrp=c-cb

 

This from today’s Miami Herald: Local sea level has risen about a foot in the last 80 years, with 8 inches of that total in the last 30 years, the Herald reported in May. The second foot will take only 30 years; the next foot, 20 years, according to estimates by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The average elevation in Miami is only 3 feet.

Most cities in Florida are in big trouble and not prepared. If you are looking for a 2nd residence or a retirement place - think twice.

 

Edited June 14 by FrankR

[SouthOfTheBorder]

and more rain & flooding in Florida 

 

[EZEtoGRU]

I’m actually in FLL now on a plane leaving shortly for Michigan. The weather in Lauderdale was a mess and totally screwed my trip. Florida definitely is not the place to be anymore. I can’t imagine investing in this state anymore. Seems like a fools errand. 

[marylander1940]

 

[BSR]

This 3m18s video is just one condo owner's story, but it very much represents what's happening all over the state:  soaring HOAs & 6-figure assessments.  The report skips skyrocketing homeowner's insurance, although I'm pretty sure this poor guy has gotten slammed with that as well.

This owner's monthly HOA rose from $1500 to $3000 a month, bad enough already.  Then he got hit by a special assessment of $224,000 [gulp]!  Since the owner doesn't have it (or anywhere near, it seems), he'll be forced to sell.  How much he'll net from the sale after paying the assessment & other costs is another matter.  Some units in the complex have been hit with assessments $400,000+!!  The complex looks nice but not super-luxe.  I doubt many owners can just write a check, no sweat.

Inventory is booming on the Gulf coast of Florida, with some areas seeing 10x increases in properties on the market.  Inventory has yet to surge in South Florida where this owner is (Aventura), but with so many owners finding they simply can no longer afford the crushing costs, it seems just a matter of time.

[+ BenjaminNicholas]

On 6/14/2024 at 11:57 AM, EZEtoGRU said:

I’m actually in FLL now on a plane leaving shortly for Michigan. The weather in Lauderdale was a mess and totally screwed my trip. Florida definitely is not the place to be anymore. I can’t imagine investing in this state anymore. Seems like a fools errand. 

It's Florida.  Weather happens.

What else makes you say that all of Florida is now for fools and a bad investment?

[+ BenjaminNicholas]

1 hour ago, BSR said:

This 3m18s video is just one condo owner's story, but it very much represents what's happening all over the state:  soaring HOAs & 6-figure assessments.  The report skips skyrocketing homeowner's insurance, although I'm pretty sure this poor guy has gotten slammed with that as well.

This owner's monthly HOA rose from $1500 to $3000 a month, bad enough already.  Then he got hit by a special assessment of $224,000 [gulp]!  Since the owner doesn't have it (or anywhere near, it seems), he'll be forced to sell.  How much he'll net from the sale after paying the assessment & other costs is another matter.  Some units in the complex have been hit with assessments $400,000+!!  The complex looks nice but not super-luxe.  I doubt many owners can just write a check, no sweat.

Inventory is booming on the Gulf coast of Florida, with some areas seeing 10x increases in properties on the market.  Inventory has yet to surge in South Florida where this owner is (Aventura), but with so many owners finding they simply can no longer afford the crushing costs, it seems just a matter of time.

Simply put:  You don't buy into a condo if you cannot afford what could be major assessments.  

These aren't some newfangled ideas.  When you play the HOA/Co-op game, this is what can and often will happen.  Buildings of this size need constant upkeep, especially in South Florida.

This reminds me a bit of the people who buy into timeshares and then realize it's bullshit and they can't get out from under it because they signed the contract.

This is why you buy a home or stand-alone condo not under an HOA.

All of this could have been avoided if the buyer had any savvy for purchasing real estate.

 

Edited June 23 by BenjaminNicholas

[BSR]

29 minutes ago, BenjaminNicholas said:

Simply put:  You don't buy into a condo if you cannot afford what could be major assessments.  

These aren't some newfangled ideas.  When you play the HOA/Co-op game, this is what can and often will happen.  Buildings of this size need constant upkeep, especially in South Florida.

This reminds me a bit of the people who buy into timeshares and then realize it's bullshit and they can't get out from under it because they signed the contract.

This is why you buy a home or stand-alone condo not under an HOA.

All of this could have been avoided if the buyer had any savvy for purchasing real estate.

 

Well, to be fair to the owner socked with a knee-buckling assessment, he bought the condo 10 years ago, well before the post-Surfside legislation that forced condo associations to take on many expensive repair & maintenance measures all at once.

But to your point, it is certainly possible if not likely that the owner featured in the video failed to do his due diligence, specifically, research whether the condo association kept up-to-date with repairs & maintenance or was guilty of kicking the can down the road.  This poor guy learned the hard way that his association was a bunch of can-kickers whistling past the graveyard.

[+ FrankR]

7 hours ago, BenjaminNicholas said:

Simply put:  You don't buy into a condo if you cannot afford what could be major assessments.  

These aren't some newfangled ideas.  When you play the HOA/Co-op game, this is what can and often will happen.  Buildings of this size need constant upkeep, especially in South Florida.

This reminds me a bit of the people who buy into timeshares and then realize it's bullshit and they can't get out from under it because they signed the contract.

This is why you buy a home or stand-alone condo not under an HOA.

All of this could have been avoided if the buyer had any savvy for purchasing real estate.

 

Exactly right - people fall in love with a property but fail to take into account the  financial condition of the HOA/Co-op. Most of these managing bodies fail to establish proper reserves for maintenance and expensive upgrades, even when they know they are coming.  If the realtor doesnt point this out to you…you need a new realtor imho. 

[+ BenjaminNicholas]

47 minutes ago, FrankR said:

Exactly right - people fall in love with a property but fail to take into account the  financial condition of the HOA/Co-op. Most of these managing bodies fail to establish proper reserves for maintenance and expensive upgrades, even when they know they are coming.  If the realtor doesnt point this out to you…you need a new realtor imho. 

Aside from a shady realtor, what the hell ever happened to personal responsibility?

We now live in a world where it's always someone else's fault. 

[SouthOfTheBorder]

4 hours ago, FrankR said:

Exactly right - people fall in love with a property but fail to take into account the  financial condition of the HOA/Co-op. Most of these managing bodies fail to establish proper reserves for maintenance and expensive upgrades, even when they know they are coming.  If the realtor doesnt point this out to you…you need a new realtor imho.

the new laws in FL now require 100% reserve funding, which is one of the reasons HOA fees are skyrocketing everywhere in Florida.  previously, most HOAs would opt to not fully fund reserves for routine anticipated maintenance & catastrophic events - they wanted to save money on monthly fees.  doesn’t make sense & it was gambling 

a realtor may have no idea of the issues in condos or coops - the big problems are frequently intentionally left out of Board meeting minutes or other official documents so new buyers won’t know and/or they want to hide major issues so it’s harder to make Board members responsible. 

In Florida, new buyers have the right to inspect the basic HOA incorporation documents & get an inspection of the unit.  I think it would be very difficult to do a deep dive into other condo docs (like Board meeting minutes or annual financial reports) before closing. Even so, those would be opaque at best.

As for personal responsibility - well, the sea is rising, storms are far worse than 20 yrs ago & development pretty much unregulated.  Insurance is costly & sometimes impossible to get. The reputable insurance companies are either leaving or have left the state.  Subpar insurance companies and the state subsidized insurance company of last resort remain with exorbitant rates.  Might be wise to read the signals

 

[+ BenjaminNicholas]

7 hours ago, SouthOfTheBorder said:

As for personal responsibility - well, the sea is rising, storms are far worse than 20 yrs ago & development pretty much unregulated.  Insurance is costly & sometimes impossible to get. The reputable insurance companies are either leaving or have left the state.  Subpar insurance companies and the state subsidized insurance company of last resort remain with exorbitant rates.  Might be wise to read the signals

As long as USAA covers FL, they will cover me.  They're not going anywhere and one of the best.

But bottom line, you can find a million reasons anywhere not to purchase.  It's not just Florida.  A ton of people make emotional decisions and then have regret later.  I can't support that and don't feel sorry for those buyers.

The sea will rise.  The sun will eventually burn out.  Welcome to the realities of life.  We move forward.

Do your due diligence.  It's not rocket science.  It just takes some patience and discipline.

This is likely one of the largest purchases of your life.  Why would you not?

[SouthOfTheBorder]

buying real estate is a financial investment and should be evaluated with all the relevant risks specific to geographic location, absent any emotion.

for the vast majority of people considering buying property in FL now, the prices will seldom justify the known risks.  I’m not sure they ever would justify the risk given spiraling cost of home-ownership and insurance industry leaving Florida…especially in condos where the owner is entirely subject to what an HOA does and zero personal choice in those costs. 

for some who may already own & acquired at lower prices, maybe the risk is much lower & justifiable.

any investment is subject to individual risk tolerance.  with real estate it’s also about desired quality of life if the property is primary residence.  the Florida market is flush with real estate listings & in the last 12 months has turned into a buyers market…..it does seem like the Covid FL real estate bubble is over.