Royal Mail Group (LON.IDS) has agreed to be taken over

[Welshman]

Back in 2013, the Royal Mail (which was then owned by the UK Government) was privatised in a share offer where the majority of applicants who asked for the bare minimum (£750 of stock) got it and if you asked for more you were told "No, 227 shares is all you are going to get!" and formally floated at 330 pence a share, reaching 600 pence a share in Febuary the following year.

In April 2018, it almost got there again at 581 pence a share, but then crashed to just 126 pence a share as the pandemic hit, but then suddenly surged back up to 577 pence a share as the pandemic came to an end, before crashing back down to 184 pence in September 2022 where it stayed until March of this year when news broke that a Czech businessman had taken a 27% stake in the company and over the next few weeks launched a formal takeover which was formally agreed a few weeks ago at 370 pence a share (12% premium on the floatation price). This means that when the deal is concluded, I am likely to get a payment of £839.90 and was thinking of using that to buy shares in the next Government privisation of the National Westminster Bank, however given that Labour who are likely to win the election on July 4th have not given any indication of whether they support such a sale and would do so if in government, should I bank that £839,90 and wait for the next government floatation, or keep it in my bank account?

[mike carey]

If I'm understanding things correctly, the government is planning to sell its share of NatWest that it acquired in order to keep the bank afloat earlier. If that's the case, and the rest of its shares are already trading on the stock exchange you would be able to get a reasonable idea of its prospects from its publicly available financial statements and the performance of the shares that are already on the stock market. Look at the terms on which the government's 35%(?) will come on the market. Stock brokerage firms will most likely have recommendations on whether to buy shares when the government's sale takes place, and some of them will be available to people who are not their clients. One question to ask yourself is whether you would consider buying these shares if you didn't have this money from Royal Mail or are you treating it as 'free money' that you can use to speculate on NatWest. Get advice from as many places as you can. None of us are you, and we all have different reasons to decide on things like this.

[Welshman]

4 hours ago, mike carey said:

If I'm understanding things correctly, the government is planning to sell its share of NatWest that it acquired in order to keep the bank afloat earlier. If that's the case, and the rest of its shares are already trading on the stock exchange you would be able to get a reasonable idea of its prospects from its publicly available financial statements and the performance of the shares that are already on the stock market. Look at the terms on which the government's 35%(?) will come on the market. Stock brokerage firms will most likely have recommendations on whether to buy shares when the government's sale takes place, and some of them will be available to people who are not their clients. One question to ask yourself is whether you would consider buying these shares if you didn't have this money from Royal Mail or are you treating it as 'free money' that you can use to speculate on NatWest. Get advice from as many places as you can. None of us are you, and we all have different reasons to decide on things like this.

And this is where the question arises I say. The United Kingdom is currently in the middle of an election (called by the Prime Minister for July 4th 2024) and both parties (the current government and possible alternative government) have released their party platforms, and there is no mention of the share offer in either party platform, making me wonder whether the scheme has been shelved by this government and the alternative government is not to keen on the idea either.